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Overtaking around Monaco has always been a near-impossible task, and the increased size of modern F1 cars makes that task even more challenging today. As such, Qualifying takes on new importance for any hopes of a good result. The narrow margins that had Lando Norris so close to Max Verstappen last weekend could see the scales tip in any direction in Monaco.
There's no other race on the F1 calendar quite like Monaco. Monte Carlo's streets are narrow and wholly inappropriate for racing. And yet Monaco will host the 81st running of its Grand Prix on Sunday (and the 70th as a championship event). Seeing how many of the world's best drivers can avoid the barriers is the name of the game, with many high-profile retirements over the years.
You'll want to tune into the action on Saturday more than on Sunday. Qualifying will often, though not always, give the best indication of who will win the race. A little over one second separated the 20 drivers in Imola's Qualifying session, showing how tightly knit this season's grid is. A slight mistake anywhere on a lap could see surprise exits in Q1 or Q2 to ruin a front-running driver's hopes of victory.
Look out for red flag stoppages on Saturday, too. The emphasis teams put on getting their drivers out as late as possible to set a fast lap when the track is grippiest can fall to pieces when someone crashes. We've seen Charles Leclerc claim pole position after crashing in 2021 and Sergio Perez frustrating Verstappen by crashing in 2022. Anything might happen.
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It's another week of Pirelli providing the softest compound tyres in their repertoire. The C3, C4, and C5 options will be there for the teams to use, giving the highest grip levels possible. We might see the green-walled intermediate tyres appear, too, with rain forecast for Qualifying.
It's a unique race for the tyres as there are far lower stresses than usual due to the low speeds the circuit demands. There are also fewer kilometres for the rubber to tackle, with Monaco being the only Grand Prix that falls below the 305km distance — the 78 laps run to a little over 260km instead.
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Ordinarily, the winner will be the pole-sitting driver, but that wasn't the case in 2021 or 2022, so there are no guarantees. Verstappen won last year's event from pole position and is the only driver to have taken P1 in Qualifying over 2024. Those statistics suggest the reigning champion will be the one to take victory again in 2024.
However, that overlooks the incredible gains from Verstappen's rivals over at McLaren and, to a lesser extent, Ferrari. Red Bull is not the all-conquering force they have been in recent seasons, with Perez falling a little behind and Verstappen beaten in a head-to-head fight against Lando Norris in Miami.
Norris already has a Monaco podium to his name after his 2021 efforts, and many will look to the latest British winner as a possible victor of Monaco. He's heading to the circuit with two P2 finishes and a win from his last three races. Sporting an Ayrton Senna-honouring livery this weekend, might Norris take to the top step again?
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It's a repeat of the starting times of Imola for Monaco, as F1 provides weekend afternoon viewing. Sunday's race is at 2 PM, with Saturday's Qualifying at 3 PM.
Qualifying – On air: 2:15 PM, Session start: 3 PM Saturday 25th May
Race – On air: 12:30 PM, Session start: 2 PM Sunday 26th May
Qualifying – Highlights: 6:50 PM Saturday 25th May
Race – Highlights: 6:30 PM Sunday 26th May
Qualifying/Race – Some providers suggest a 40% chance of rain on Saturday, with others expecting it to remain dry. Any drizzle could upset the order as the drivers turn to Pirelli's intermediate or wet tyres ahead of Sunday's sunny race with highs of 22°C.