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Tyres NorthamptonMax Verstappen winning a world championship title and immediately having its legitimacy brought into doubt – what a duo these two are becoming. First, the controversy surrounding *that* final lap in Abu Dhabi last year, and now the revelation that his Red Bull team broke the cost cap rules. One of these days, the young Dutchman might enjoy becoming an outright world champion without any question marks over the legality, but it doesn't look like it'll be this year.
Earlier this week, Formula One's governing body, the FIA, published their overdue statement detailing which teams conformed to the 2021 cost cap regulations – and Red Bull had not. Thanks to the F1 paddock's capability to be as watertight as a wicker basket, the news broke early, just ahead of the Singapore Grand Prix, and the FIA's announcement merely served to confirm what was already known.
What wasn't public knowledge, however, was the extremity of the rulebreaking and what the punishment would be. And in true FIA obscurement fashion, we still don't know. The only new information established that Red Bull had a "minor breach" of the $145m limit; in other words, they overspent by 0.1-5%, but the exact figure is unknown. Aston Martin also fell foul, but of a procedural breach tied to accounting protocols rather than overspending.
According to the FIA's rules, Red Bull could lose constructors' or drivers' points, have race exclusions, lose aerodynamic testing time, and receive a fine. Or receive the utterly terrifying... erm, public reprimand.
Red Bull's competitors are, unsurprisingly, baying for blood. Mercedes and Ferrari, Red Bull's closest rivals in 2021 and 2022, feel the benefits of overspending could help to develop a quicker car and thus win a championship. Even though the overspending concerns 2021, work on any given team's 2022 car would've begun early last year, particularly as Covid meant 2021's regulations weren't dramatically different from 2020's.
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However, this situation means Red Bull and Max Verstappen can't enjoy their second championship together because it's entirely within the FIA's power to take the titles away. You may have limited sympathy for such an eventuality should you understandably feel a cheater in sports doesn't deserve their success. However, the current opaqueness of the situation means there's no way of knowing if Red Bull overspent $7m on what could be a superior B-spec car or $50k on a staff bonus. Both are wrong, but they sit at opposite ends of the egregious scale.
What comes next, and what many hoped Monday's announcement would've contained, will be crucial for F1's future. A soft or no punishment will lead the financially-sound teams to throw extra money at the sport in the future. If any advantage gained from overspending exceeds the penalty they'll receive, the cost cap becomes a guide, not a rule. The long-term consequences will turn away teams and manufacturers from joining, just when the likes of Andretti Autosport and Audi had declared they want to be part of the circus.
On the other hand, changing the championship outcome could destroy Formula One's reputation as its popularity keeps reaching new peaks. The doping scandal surrounding Lance Armstrong caused unquantifiable damage to cycling's prestige, and F1 may suffer a similar fate if the FIA tell the world their latest double-world champion isn't even a one-time championship winner. Yet, how will the other nine teams react if they don't take action against Verstappen and Red Bull?
Thanks to Red Bull's nonconformance, Formula One and the FIA appear at a precipice, with dire consequences on either side. Yet they must fall one way or the other and hope the results don't ruin all the progress made in recent years. It again seems that even in a sport with 200mph wheel-to-wheel fighting, F1's most sensational drama happens off-track, and the coming weeks will prove pivotal.
